The Magic Number Is Revealed: It Costs Central Banks $200 Billion Per Quarter To Avoid A Market Crash

By Tyler Durden, ZeroHedge

We have all seen it countless times before: visual confirmation that without the Fed’s (and all other central banks’) liquidity pump, the S&P would be about 70% lower than were it is now.

Most recently, this was shown last Friday in “Another Reminder How Addicted Markets Still Are To Liquidity” in which Deutsche bank’s Jim Reid said:

The recovery from the lows after Bullard spoke yesterday is another reminder how addicted markets still are to liquidity. Indeed in today’s pdf we reprint and update a table from our 2014 Outlook showing the various phases of the Fed’s balance sheet expansion and pausing over the last 5-6 years and its impact on equities and credit. We have found that the relationship broadly works best with markets pricing in the Fed balance sheet move just under 3 months in advance. We’ve also included our oft-used chart of the Fed balance sheet vs the S&P 500 to help demonstrate this. So end July / early August 2014 was always the time that this relationship suggested markets should enter a new more difficult phase. So we still think central bankers hold the key to markets going forward and there seems to be a hint of change in the Fed.
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Another view was shown over the weekend, in “The Chart That Explains Why Fed’s Bullard Wants To Restart The QE Flow” which shows that when the Fed’s excess reserve firehose is turned on Max, stocks surge; when it isn’t – as has been the case recently – they tumble.
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So now that “best Keynesian practices” are out of the window, and everyone has once again turned Austrian, and only the “flow of money” (either inside or outside) matters, the question is how much do central banks need to inject to keep the stock market from crashing, let alone continuing to levitate. Luckily, Citi’s Matt King has just done the math, and the answer is…

Here is his answer:

We think the markets’ weakness owes more to an almost belated reaction to a temporary lull in central bank stimulus than it does to any reduction in the effect of that stimulus in propping up asset prices. Figure 5 shows the rolling 3m combined liquidity injection by the Fed, the ECB, the BoE and the BoJ, plotted against the rolling 3m change in spreads. While the relationship is not perfect – liquidity flows across asset classes and across borders, and there are announcement and confidence effects in addition to the straightforward impact on net supply – it is this, not fundamentals, which we would argue has been the major driver of markets for the past few years (Figure 6 shows the same series plotted against global equities).
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In case anyone missed it, and in case there is still any debate about this issue which we first explicitly stated nearly 6 years ago and were widely mocked by the all too serious intelligentsia, here is the key sentence again:

 “it’s the liquidity injections, not fundamentals, which we would argue has been the major driver of markets for the past few years.

And with that piece of New Normal trivia behind us, we continue:

For over a year now, central banks have quietly being reducing their support. As Figure 7 shows, much of this is down to the Fed, but the contraction in the ECB’s balance sheet has also been significant. Seen from this perspective, a negative reaction in markets was long overdue: very roughly, the charts suggest that zero stimulus would be consistent with 50bp widening in investment grade, or a little over a ten percent quarterly drop in equities.
Put differently, it takes around $200bn per quarter just to keep markets from selling off.
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If anyone ever needed any confirmation of what we said in June 2012, that “The Stock Is Dead, Long-Live The Flow: Perpetual QE Has Arrived“, now you have it, and only qualified but quantified. Because to translate what Matt King – Citi’s most respected strategist and the only person on Wall Street to warn about the Lehman collapse and its consequences before it happened, just said – if and when the global central bank liquidity tracker ever drops to $200 billion per quarter or less, the market will crash.

LE MONDE FINANCIER EST DEVENU AVEUGLE, MERCI MR BERNANKE

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Par Pierre Jovanovic © www.jovanovic.com 2008-2013

du 24 au 28 juin 2013 :
La semaine qui vient de passer a instauré une nouvelle peur panique parce que Mr Bernanke a expliqué qu’il allait mettre sa planche à billets en sourdine et qu’il ne lancera plus ses milliards de dollars gratuits de son hélicoptère.[EDITOR’S NOTE: 85 Milliards de $ par mois pour être précis]

Cela a donc déclenché la panique… Tant que l’argent gratuit coule à flots, il rend les traders ivres, totalement drogués au “Quantitave Easing”, bel euphémisme pour “planche à billets”. Supprimez leur drogue et ils deviennent comme des dingues, des drogués en manque, prêts à faire sauter la planète financière, juste pour pouvoir toucher leurs bonus habituels. Danger.

Comme d’habitude cette situation n’a pas été trop commentée sur vos médias… Il ne se passe toujours rien… sauf sur les places financières prêtes à exploser pour un “oui” ou un “non”. Notre lecteur Dimitri a très bien résumé la situation: “On a donc eu une petite crizounette sur les marchés avec Bernanke qui nous informe de sa prochaine Exit Strategy. Evidemment, comme les choses ne tombent pas du ciel, le rapport du BIS est tombé ce dimanche (Bloomberg lien, lien BIS). On apprend que: “les Banques centrales ne peuvent pas tout” “Qu’il faut sortir pour prévenir des risques associés aux planches a billets”.

En somme tout un baratin dans lequel, pour ma part, je vois ceci: Réduire les liquidités dispo pour financer les Emergents (Amérique Latine + Asie Pacifique + Russie) de sorte que cela entraîne des troubles et désordres dans ces pays, c’est à dire dans les pays qui ne sont pas sous le contrôle direct ou indirect des USA.

D’ailleurs on notera les troubles au Brésil, l’annulation d’une émission du Trésor Russe et du Trésor Bresilien la semaine dernière… Ceci n’est qu’un début. Quand on recadre toute ces infos avec ce qu’on voit depuis 2 ans alors on peut dire: Le marché transatlantique bientot finalisé permettra aux USA de tirer profit des Européen (rappelons nous de Barroso disant nein aux panneaux solaires aux chinois) + même accord avec Japon USA Australie. Encore et toujours des pays qui adhèrent à l’Eeuro/Uem Ue (Europe de l’Est) et Syrie qui permettra d’assurer l’acheminement en gaz à toute l’Europe en sortant les Russes (…)

Tout avance petit à petit pendant que les merdias BFM, etc., nous disent que c’est la reprise avec leur “observatoire” de mes deux”. Liens sur Reuters, Bloomberg, le FT, ZH et FT second lien.

Revue de Presse par Pierre Jovanovic © http://www.jovanovic.com 2008-2013

Les banques françaises présentent le plus important risque systémique en Europe !

Par Philippe Herlin – Chercheur en finance / Contributeur pour Goldbroker.com

Après des déficits publics à la dérive, dont nous avons parlé la semaine dernière, la France doit aussi s’inquiéter pour son secteur bancaire. En effet, selon Euromoney, d’après une étude du Center for Risk Management de Lausanne, les banques françaises présentent le plus important risque systémique en Europe !

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Pour évaluer ce risque systémique, l’institut de Lausanne a mesuré le besoin en capital dont a besoin une banque s’il survient une crise financière mondiale. Cette crise est définie par une chute de 40% des indices boursiers mondiaux sur un semestre.

Et c’est le Crédit Agricole qui arrive en première position, avec 86 milliards d’euros, suivi de la Deutsche Bank (82 milliards d’euros), Barclays (71 milliards d’euros), BNP Paribas (68 milliards d’euros). La Société Générale arrive en 6e position, Natixis et l’assureur AXA en 13e et 14e position. Et encore Dexia est-elle considérée comme une banque belge alors qu’en réalité la France intervient en garantie à hauteur de 45,5%. Au total, c’est 271 milliards d’euros qu’il faudrait apporter aux banques françaises dans une telle situation !

Viennent ensuite le Royaume-Uni (206 milliards d’euros), l’Allemagne (135 milliards d’euros), l’Italie (90 milliards d’euros).

Cette inquiétante première position s’explique notamment par l’effet de levier qui est en France le plus élevé d’Europe selon le Center for Risk Management de Lausanne avec un chiffre de 31 (donc 31 euros d’engagements pour 1 euro de cash)… On trouve ensuite les Pays-Bas (29), l’Italie (27), l’Allemagne (25). Les bons élèves sont le Royaume-Uni (16), la Suisse (14), la Suède (10).

Ce risque systémique élevé s’explique également par la forte concentration du secteur puisque trois banques monopolisent l’essentiel de l’activité : le Crédit Agricole (qui a racheté le Crédit Lyonnais en 2002), BNP Paribas (né de la fusion de la BNP et de Paribas en 2000, et qui a racheté Fortis en 2009) et la Société Générale. L’édifice est d’autant plus fragile. On signale juste au passage que le total du bilan de BNP Paribas est égal au PIB de la France. Nous avons ainsi trois mastodontes que l’Etat est condamné à aider quoi qu’il arrive : les banques françaises ont parfaitement théorisé et appliqué le “too big to fail” !

Ceci dit cette fragilité est celle de l’ensemble des banques européennes, la France est la plus concernée mais les autres pays ne sont pas à l’abri. D’ailleurs le fait que les bilans bancaires soient si dépendants des places boursières traduit un dérèglement de la finance, une dérive des banques vers la finance de marché (plus rémunératrice mais plus risquée, justement) au détriment de leur activité de base, le crédit (moins rémunérateur mais plus stable).

Surtout, l’hypothèse de l’étude, on le rappelle une chute de 40% des marchés boursiers mondiaux en l’espace de six mois, n’a absolument rien d’improbable, au contraire. Avec les planches à billets qui tournent à plein régime aux Etats-Unis, au Japon et dans une moindre mesure en Europe, chacun comprend que les indices boursiers sont artificiellement dopés. La question n’est même pas de savoir si une telle chute des cours peut arriver mais quand. A ce moment-là le risque systémique ne sera plus un objet d’étude mais une réalité très concrète.

AU VIOL DES PEUPLES S’AJOUTENT LES CRACHATS DES TRADERS (ou: LE DOW JONES BAT DES RECORDS)

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Par Pierre JOVANOVIC

du 11 au 15 mars 2013 : Du jamais vu dans l’histoire humaine… Ben Bernanke a balancé aux banquiers et financiers pour 2.000 milliards de dollars de planches à billets depuis 2008. Deux mille milliards vous imaginez, ce qui a permis au Dow Jones de soi disant battre ses records historiques selon les crétins, pardon, journalistes économiques que voyez causer dans le poste. Des records qui vont en effet de pair, parfaitement synchronisés même, aux licenciements massifs que l’on voit depuis début 2008 et qui se poursuivent sans cesse depuis mai 2012.

Mais la presse vendue vous dit que tout va bien dans l’économie puisque le Dow Jones a battu son record… Elle a juste oublié ce qui s’est passé 6 mois après ce fameux record. Wall Street a tout simplement explosé!! Il n’y a que les “experts” pour ne pas voir l’évidence… Il se trouve que Zero Hedge et le FT ont eu la même réaction outrée que votre serviteur. ZH a même comparé les principaux indicateurs de 2007 vs 2013 et là, on voit bien LA GRANDE ESCROQUERIE DES AMERICAINS et aussi celle des journalistes économiques (et bien sûr des députés et ministres complices) qui laissent faire sans rien dire.

- GDP Growth: Then +2.5% – Now +1.6%

- Regular Gas Price: Then $2.75 – Now $3.73

- Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force) – Then 6.7 million – Now 13.2 million

- Americans On Food Stamps: Then 26.9 million – Now 47.69 million

- Size of Fed’s Balance Sheet: Then $0.89 trillion – Now $3.01 trillion

- US Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Then 38% – Now 74.2%

- US Deficit (LTM): Then $97 billion – Now $975.6 billion

- Total US Debt Oustanding: Then $9.008 trillion – Now $16.43 trillion

Au fait Monsieur Toutou, Bozo, Langlais, etc., comment expliquez-vous que, comme le Dow Jones, le CAC40 n’ait pas battu son record, environ 6200 points, de 2007? Hmmm? Pourquoi il se traîne à 3700 points?
Comment expliquez vous que le chômage ait explosé des deux côtés de l’Atlantique, malgré la (pseudo) bonne santé outrageuse du monde financier? Comment expliquez vous qu’au moins 30 HEDGE-FUNDS américains n’aient pas explosé après que le cours d’Apple se soit effondré de presque 40%?

La réponse est simple: parce que sur ces 2000 milliards, la Fed n’a balancé aux Européens que quelques milliards de dollars, juste pour mieux les endetter et leur garder la tête hors de l’eau, en réalité juste de quoi respirer… Tout le reste a sauvé les établissements US. Au passage, le peuple européen paye une partie du rétablissement de Wall Street avec du vrai argent, puisqu’il n’y a pas de vraie planche à billets européenne.

PS: Vous avez remarqué que la presse éco française se garde bien d’utiliser le terme “planche à billets”… ça ferait désordre. Les caniches utilisent “assouplissement”, si, si, genre Soupline, voyez?, que Madame verse dans sa machine à laver (c’est aussi une manière inconsciente de nous dire qu’ils nous servent bien de la soupe et pas de l’info)

PS2: le Telegraph non plus n’est pas tombé dans le panneau. “Central bank money printing and the mystery of soaring shares. ‘Why did nobody see it coming?”, the Queen asked four years ago on a visit to the London School of Economics, a brilliantly faux naïve question that cruelly exposed the failings of modern economics”… ha ha ha: “1) One reason is zero interest rates, allowing companies which, in a conventional recession, would have gone bust, to stay in business. At the same time, banks have been bailed out, so that bad debts have in effect been nationalised. Taxpayers rather than investors are being made to pay the price for past excesses. The insolvency problem has been transferred from the private to the public sector … It’s labour rather than capital which has been most damaged by the downturn … 2) The other related explanation is central bank money printing”.

Cliquez ici pour lire l’analyse perfide de la Perfide Albion

PS3: Lisez cet article de ZH “Fed Injects Record $100 Billion Cash Into Foreign Banks Operating In The US In Past Week”pour que certaines banques bien de chez nous ne fassent pas faillite… ça ferait désordre au Dow Jones. Vous avez vu d’ailleurs que le cours du Crédit Agricole est monté? Faut-il y voir l’intervention de la FED??? ha ha ha… Le monde est entré dans un Weimar planétaire, et tout va sauter à un moment donné ou à un autre.

PS4: Lisez surtout ce papier de Caldwell dans le Financial Times ici “What looks like a rally may just be the effect of elites passing money among themselves. The Dow Jones rallied beyond 14,300 points this week, passing the highs it reached in 2007 just as the world economy was starting to wobble”… qui vous explique que tout ceci n’est qu’une cavalerie géante menée par nos politiques, sur le dos du peuple, c’est à dire vous et moi.

Why Obama’s JOBS Act Couldn’t Suck Worse

President Barack Obama signs the Bill for the HR 3606, the 'Jump start Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act.'

Boy, do I feel like an idiot. I’ve been out there on radio and TV in the last few months saying that I thought there was a chance Barack Obama was listening to the popular anger against Wall Street that drove the Occupy movement, that decisions like putting a for-real law enforcement guy like New York AG Eric Schneiderman in charge of a mortgage fraud task force meant he was at least willing to pay lip service to public outrage against the banks.

Then the JOBS Act happened.

The “Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act” (in addition to everything else, the Act has an annoying, redundant title) will very nearly legalize fraud in the stock market.

In fact, one could say this law is not just a sweeping piece of deregulation that will have an increase in securities fraud as an accidental, ancillary consequence. No, this law actually appears to have been specifically written to encourage fraud in the stock markets.

Ostensibly, the law makes it easier for startup companies (particularly tech companies, whose lobbyists were a driving force behind its passage) to attract capital by, among other things, exempting them from independent accounting requirements for up to five years after they first begin selling shares in the stock market.

The law also rolls back rules designed to prevent bank analysts from talking up a stock just to win business, a practice that was so pervasive in the tech-boom years as to be almost industry standard. Continue reading

Obama Authorizes Greater Wall Street Theft

By Stephen Lendman

On April 5, as expected, Obama signed the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act (the JOBS Act).

Again, America’s 99% was betrayed. Overwhelming bipartisan House and Senate support backed the measure. The bill does nothing to create jobs. It facilitates greater fraud. America’s race to the bottom continues.

Wall Street’s again celebrating, and why not. Only bankers could love this type bill. They had to. They wrote it. It opens greater avenues for grand theft.

The SEC long ago abandoned its regulatory mandate. Under financial industry insider Mary Schapiro, it’s in safe hands. Her job just got easier. The bill eliminates SEC reporting requirements for enterprises with annual revenues up to $1 billion.

[Editor’s note: The Security Exchange Commission: SEC, used to be the Police of Wall Street in charge of monitoring Frauds, and had the power to make investigations an to indict People and Companies.]

The implications are obvious. Not only will big fish steal freely, so will smaller ones.

The measure also makes it easier for companies to raise oversight-free capital online. They can have up to 1,000 investors without providing the SEC financial data. In addition, they can solicit them more freely. It’s similar to how drug giants promote toxic products. Users have no idea what they’re getting.

Former bank regulator/financial fraud expert Bill Black called the measure “insane on many levels. It creates an extraordinarily criminogenic environment in which securities fraud will become even more out of control.”

Leading up to passage, back room dealmaking ignored expert anti-fraud input. The best, brightest, and most honest independent analysts unanimously condemned the bill. Black calls it “the sick face of crony capitalism.”

Matt Taibbi’s “The Great American Bubble Machine” called Goldman Sachs “a great vampire squid wrapped around the fact of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells money.”

In fact, it’s much worse. Wall Street and other FIRE sector (finance, insurance, real estate) giants together comprise the GREATEST “vampire squid.” They’re all the stronger by Washington’s complicit role.

Their business model is grand theft. They’re crime families, not legitimate enterprises. They make money by stealing it. They wreck economies, communities, and households. Corrupt politicians let them. They’re bribed to go along. As bad as things are, they’re getting worse.

On April 5, The New York Times headlined, “Obama Signs Bill to Promote Start-Up Investments,” saying:

Surrounded by complicit lawmakers and industry crooks, Obama signed the JOBS Act. He called it a “potential game changer.” The Times article went along with the charade. It quoted him saying:

“For the first time, ordinary Americans will be able to go online and invest in entrepreneurs that they believe in.”

“Our economy has begun to turn a corner, but we’ve still got a long way to go. We’ve still got a lot of Americans out there who are looking for a job or looking for a job that pays better than the one that they’ve got.”

Unexplained was that 25 million are unemployed. Millions more are underemployed.

The real unemployment rate’s about 22.5%, not the fake 8.2% figure. The economy’s dead. Main Street’s in a protracted Depression. Force-fed austerity worsens it. Poverty or households approaching it’s at record levels.

Millions are suffering. Political Washington’s indifferent. No matter. Friday was a day for “celebrating a rare bipartisan achievement on legislation that had been pushed by Republicans and embraced by Mr. Obama in his (January) State of the Union address.”

House majority leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) said:

“I hope it represents the kind of bipartisan work that we can accomplish here in Washington over the next few months. We have a very difficult economic situation still. We are nowhere near out of the woods.”

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) called the bill a “key part of the Republican jobs plan,” adding:

It’s “good news for entrepreneurs and aspiring small businesspeople struggling to overcome government barriers to job creation.”

“The House will continue to lead the way on jobs, and with help from President Obama and Senate Democrats, we can get these things done for the people we serve and the country we love.”

It’s “good news” all right, but not for long-suffering households. This measure increases their torrent. It does nothing to alleviate it. As expected, Obama went along. Imagine conditions ahead if he’s reelected.

Continue reading

US Invading Syria by Proxy

By Tony Cartalucci

US “prepares military options” to back terrorists in Syria.

February 9, 2012 – After world opinion categorically denied Wall Street, London, and it’s NATO forces a replay in Syria of the destruction and pillaging of Libya, with Russia and China leading opposition to a planned escalation and overt NATO military intervention, the corporate-financier media led by CNN, and in particular CIA-asset Anderson Cooper, has conducted a non-stop propaganda campaign based entirely on “activist” say so centered around the Syrian city of Homs. Journalistic integrity and neutrality have been shamelessly abandoned, evident by CNN headlines reading, “Ruthless Assad rides wave of slaughter.”

Every claim is punctuated by “activists say,” with passionate pleas for NATO to rain Libya-style death and destruction upon Syria from alleged “activists” on the phone with CNN’s Anderson Cooper, “activists” who could just as easily be in the adjacent room at CNN’s studio or in London, as in Homs – since CNN and other corporate-media outlets have categorically failed to provide substantial, verified evidence of their most recent narrative. It is a narrative to dupe the West once again into what is essentially naked military conquest operating behind the tenuous fig leaf of “responsibility to protect” (R2P).

But even at face value, CNN reports “clashes” and features video footage of armed militants waving the “Free Syrian Army” flag while operating armored vehicles and brandishing weapons of war. One could scarcely imagine any Western nation faced with similarly armed militants terrorizing their city streets not responding with full military force, especially with recent historical examples such as the siege in Waco, Texas where US government forces ruthlessly killed 76 including over 20 children for much lesser crimes than sedition, treason, and openly declared foreign-backed armed-insurrection.

In fact, all the Davidians of Waco, Texas were convicted of were possessing “illegal weapons” and using them when attacked by armed federal agents – a far cry form the “Free Syrian Army” (FSA) who not only possesses weapons of war, but is demonstratively using them to terrorize and violently overthrow the sovereign government of Syria and forcibly seize populated districts. This includes FSA ultimatums immediately followed up by bombs tearing through civilians in the Syrian capital of Damascus and offensive attacks on security forces.

While the deceit and criminality of NATO’s feigned humanitarian campaign in Libya is still fresh in the mind of world opinion, the global corporate-financier elite, paraded round-the-clock on CNN (globalist warmonger Ann-Marie Slaughter being the most paraded), attempt to compare events in Syria instead with “Kosovo,” an intervention NATO hopes many are unfamiliar with and will just take their word when it is suggested that it was both “justified” and a “success.”

However, just like in Libya, the corporate-financiers peddling this war are not pursuing a humanitarian agenda, quite the contrary. They are fully arming, supporting, harboring, financing, and directing listed foreign terrorist organizations inside Syria to conduct an invasion by proxy. In fact, it is confirmed that the very same Libya Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG), on record having killed US troops in both Iraq and Afghanistan before returning to Libya to receive full UN, US, and NATO backing to overthrow Qaddafi, are now on the border of Syria operating under the auspices of NATO members including Turkey.

Now, open calls by the same familiar “elected” US representatives such as John McCain and Joe Lieberman, are being made to side-step the global corporate-financier’s own contrived international institutions, including the UN Security Council, and unilaterally meddle in Syria’s internal conflict well established to have been triggered by foreign-funded “opposition” groups in the first place, by overtly arming and backing a proxy army in Syria.

Just as in Libya, Wall Street and London with or without a UN resolution plan to fully fund, arm, back, and support, first covertly, then overtly with military force a mixture of domestic traitors in Syria’s US-funded opposition and foreign mercenaries like Libya’s LIFG terror organization to invade and overthrow the government of Syria. This will be done at any cost, just as in Libya, international law will be selectively enforced by the facade that is the UN, just as was done in Libya, until either the West is tactically defeated, or overwhelmed by growing international awareness and anger over the “R2P” racket.

Romney and Obama Share Same Bankster Campaign Contributors

Kurt Nimmo
Infowars.com
January 17, 2012

Like Obama, Mitt Romney is a wind-up doll for Wall Street and the bankers. There is virtually no difference between them despite all the fetid air from the GOP propaganda machine.

Romney’s Bain Capital owns the “conservative” propaganda machine, Clear Channel.

This is revealed by a quick look at Romney’s top contributors. An Open Secrets page on top Romney contributors reads like a Who’s Who of Wall Street and the financial cartel. The top contributor is Goldman Sachs, followed by Credit Suisse Group, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, UBS, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Barclays – major players in the Wall Street and City of London bankster constellation.

Bain Capital is also on the list. It is a “financial services” and investment firm co-founded by Romney. Bain owns the establishment media propaganda conglomerate Clear Channel, which explains why “conservative” talk show hosts like Limbaugh, Hannity and Levin are supporting Romney, especially with the strong showing of Ron Paul in the primaries. Both Savage (real name Weiner) and Levin have gone so far as to call Paul a threat to the country.

In December, Mitt refused to release the identity of his “bundlers,” or people who gather contributions from many individuals in an organization or community and give the cash to the campaign.

In other words, the above list is only the tip of the iceberg. Romney’s lack of transparency about his bundlers indicates he is getting money from sources that want their identity concealed. Continue reading