SR 1246 – First Poll on Trump’s Naughty Word Scandal
Well, the first polling results are in on the Donald Trump 11-year-old Naughty-Word-Scandal. According to this morning’s USC Daybreak Poll, the overall reaction is — a resounding yawn.
Trump’s support did drop one tenth of a percentage point, from 46.2 to 46.1%, but Hillary Clinton dropped 4 times as much – .4% – down to 43%. So, Trump leads overall by 3.2%
Bottom line, Trump actually gained an additional third of a percentage point on Clinton.
Now, granted, the scandal broke in the early afternoon, but still bad news travels fast and overall, we suspect that this will be seen as yet another Clinton dirty trick in the end.
Digging down into the data of the poll tends to confirm this. Trump still leads with every age group. Although Trump support dropped in the 18-34 group yesterday, so did Clinton’s, and Trump maintains a quarter of a percentage point lead among Millennials.
Trump gained in the other two age groups. In the 35-64 group, Trump now leads by 3.2%.
In the 65 and over group, the group that votes in the highest percentages, Trump now leads Clinton by 6-and-a-half points.
You can’t argue with the numbers, and remember, this was the most accurate poll in the 2012 Presidential race. And another thing to remember is, every voter falls into one of these 3 categories.
Interestingly, Trump actually gained a full point-and-a-half on Clinton among women and now trails by 11.5 percentage points. What you hear day after day in the MSM is that Clinton leads Trump by 20 points or more among women. However, with men, Trump still crushes Clinton by 15.8 percentage points.
Overall, the only impact on Trump so far was he slightly increased his lead over Clinton.
Our expectation is that Clinton will gain on Trump tomorrow morning, then Sunday morning things will return to normal as the media begins to focus on scandals that matter. And then, Sunday night, Debate #2 will drive the polling for the next couple of days.